Aluminum Alloy Futures Fluctuated Rangebound with Adjustments, Secondary Aluminum Remained Stable [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment on 11.25

Futures: The most-traded cast aluminum alloy 2601 contract opened higher at 20,695 yuan/mt overnight, hit a low of 20,635 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 20,645 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.05% from the previous close. Trading volume was 740 lots, and open interest was 11,102 lots. The contract formed a small bearish candlestick with upper and lower shadows and was in a pullback from previous highs, indicating a short-term bearish trend. Prices fluctuated rangebound around the opening price, with both volume and open interest declining. Combined with the previous pullback, this reflects a short-term market state of "wait-and-see plus weak consolidation."

Basis Daily: According to SMM data, on November 24, the theoretical premium of the SMM ADC12 spot price over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2601) at 10:15 AM was 695 yuan/mt.

Warrant Daily: SHFE data showed that on November 24, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 61,902 mt, an increase of 1,026 mt from the previous trading day. The total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,757 mt, unchanged from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 19,906 mt, an increase of 1,026 mt; in Jiangsu, it was 11,000 mt, unchanged; in Zhejiang, it was 19,811 mt, unchanged; in Chongqing, it was 6,308 mt, unchanged; and in Sichuan, it was 120 mt, unchanged.

Aluminum Scrap: On Monday, the spot price of primary aluminum fell compared to the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at 21,360 yuan/mt, while the aluminum scrap market overall held steady. Baled UBC was quoted in the range of 16,000-16,500 yuan/mt (tax excluded), and shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) was quoted in the range of 18,000-18,500 yuan/mt (tax excluded). The price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was 2,501 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and bare bright aluminum wire in Jiangsu was 881.3 yuan/mt. The aluminum scrap market was expected to hover at highs this week, with the mainstream price range for shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) likely fluctuating between 17,800-18,600 yuan/mt. The market was expected to continue the high-level tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. It is recommended to closely track the price trend of primary aluminum and adjustments in procurement strategies of downstream enterprises.

Silicon Metal: On November 24, SMM non-oxygen blown #553 silicon metal in east China was priced at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt; #521 at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt; #441 at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 at 9,600-9,900 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt; and #3303 at 10,300-10,600 yuan/mt. Silicon prices in some areas, including Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Northwest China, Xinjiang, and Shanghai, were also adjusted lower. Prices in Kunming and Sichuan held steady. Overseas Market: The current overseas ADC12 quotation range remained flat at $2,600–2,630/mt, with the immediate import loss widening to above 500 yuan/mt, keeping the import window closed.

Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the combined daily social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 50,200 mt on November 24, a decrease of 333 mt from the previous trading day.

Summary: On Monday, the domestic aluminum market showed a narrow-range adjustment trend. The SMM A00 aluminum spot price was quoted at 21,360 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In the secondary aluminum market, the ADC12 price held steady at 21,350 yuan/mt. On the raw material side, most aluminum scrap prices remained flat, and the market trading atmosphere was stable. In the short term, the downside room for ADC12 prices is limited, supported by costs and supply. However, the recent decline in aluminum prices and cautious demand are suppressing rebound momentum. ADC12 prices are expected to move sideways within the range of 21,200-21,500 yuan/mt in the near term.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]